The Numbers Game, or Gaming Numbers?
Everyone owner says their exchange is the best. And many will have numbers to prove it. But sometimes I wonder about all these numbers. Are we playing a numbers game, or are people gaming the numbers?
Credits – Most exchanges 1 credit = 1 hit. But some it could be 2, 5, 10! So when one says they give out more credits.. But those credits are worth way less hits.. is that a legitamite claim?
Members – Some exchanges post their membership numbers. Are these active members, or total? Is it total accounts created in all history, or number of accounts still in the system? Or how about exchanges that let you create more than one account, and then boast membership numbers? Is that for real?
Active Surfing – How about the number of people surfing.. When are they no longer considered surfing.. 30 seconds after their last click? 30 minutes? And again if they allow multiple accounts, if 100 accounts are surfing but everyone has 2 accounts is that 100 or 50 surfing?
Bonuses – Is a surfing bonus based on your surfing ratio, or based on the number of pages viewed? If one exchange is based on your ratio, but another on pages viewed, that’s wildly different if you are a free member! (10% of 2:1 is .05, 10% of 1 is .1)
Pages Viewed – If one exchange has a 10 second timer, but another has a 15 second timer, are the number of pages viewed equal? Or is a 15 second page view worth more than a 10 second one?
This all makes me think of the quotes “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth” (George Canning) “There are two kinds of statistics: the kind you look up and the kind you make up” (Rex Stout). If you do it right, you can make just about any aspect of an exchange sound better than another..
So where does it end? Is there a line somewhere? Or do we just say it’s all marketing and continue on?
Hi Tim,
Stats to me don’t make up a big deal. In todays day an age its so easy to make up fake or misleading stats, and on the Internet its easy to tell a lie or half the truth.
The only way anyone will know which exchange is better or the best is to actually test them for themselves.
This is a very good post , Tim. As a new TE owner, I find myself watching the numbers posted by other TE’s. There have been several new exchanges come online lately & some of them boost pages surfed in the 10’s of 1000’s. If they’re telling the truth, and I assume they are, I just wonder how they can have so many pages surfed with just a few hundred members. Even if they have a couple of thousand members, I still wonder. I hope I,m not offending anyone, I belong to several of these exchanges & like them. But, I still wonder.
Hi Tim,
Interesting questions, indeed.
I usually upgrade in TE’s, either when, or soon after joining, if they have what I’m personally looking for: Results, Ease of Use, and Fun to Use, in order of importance. No sense using them, let alone paying, if I don’t get what I want from them.
I belong to two exchanges that “cost” 10 credits per hit. They both award 10 credits per page view, so I still see that as a 1:1 ratio, but watching the credits pile up while surfing is fun :-)
As far as the statistics the owners post, it’s all marketing. I don’t pay too much attention to them.
The one I **DO** wonder about is the stats they post for my sites, as to how many hits they’ve delivered. My own stats, via tracking, don’t always jive with theirs.
Glad you’re keeping your eyes open!
Steves lastest blog post..Create Custome Blog Themes
Nobody has ever done this type of analysis before I don’t think. And you need to add a similar adjunct to this: Referrals surfing. Stats matter, then they don’t matter. The best exchanges should have the most members, but that is certainly not the case. I think what makes AF different, is that finally someone has leveled the field. What I mean by this is, now it is a satisfaction poll. What TE has the most satisfied members? Sort of like the JD Power surveys. Big car, little car, expensive, cheap, they all compete for satisfaction surveys.
stephen cs lastest blog post..Student Loan Consolidation
Nothing will ever beat your own testing especially since not only is the traffic exchange being tested but what you are rotating as well.
Everyone has their own preferences on why they use a traffic exchange such as customer service, bonuses, smooth surfing, kick-ass design, etc., but ultimately everyone should want results.
The only way to get the best possible results is to test them yourself. I’ve gotten better results from exchanges that never show up on any of the top ranked listings than I do from some of the popular ones.
Jimmy Adames
Hi Tim,
Statistics seem to be a very important part of our modern world but what exactly do they mean?
Statistically, I could probably prove that people who eat boiled eggs for breakfast are more likely to have an automobile accident.
At the end of the day if it doesn’t fit, invent it.
Les
Les Stevenss lastest blog post..Push Button Extreme
Tim, At the end of each day all that matters is making a monetary profit on your marketing efforts.Everything else is secondary.In today’s society unless everyone goes away from this way of dealing it will always be so.
If it comes to the crunch numbers pay second field behind responsive clicks. Some Exchanges are far more responsive than others. There are only 3 where referrals have upgraded in my case.
Mike
Statistics are only valuable if they have a benefit to the end user. In most cases self aggrandised statistics are worthless. e.g. A health service could say “We saved 106 lives today.”
However they may have caused a major flu outbreak at a clinic where the end results of infected people could run into many thousands. To individuals it comes down to one thing. personal results. Statistics are not always what they seem.
All the numbers and statistics offered can confuse more than they help.
The true question is ‘Can I surf this exchange enough, in the time I have, to get measurable results?’
Some exchanges look like the surfing ratio (for free members) is a bit stingy but, by the time you add in the bonuses awarded for paying attention, you actually end up with a pretty decent rate.
Other exchanges award a ton of credits that will then sit in your account like last week’s newspapers.
The only numbers that count at the end of the day, are the number of signups you get and the balance in your Paypal account!
I like exchanges that deliver. I check my web analytics pretty regularly, if I don’t see any return I know the stats are not true.
Mariannes lastest blog post..Marketing Free Recommendations
Very Interesting post, traffic exchanges do really vary. The one that I run has a 1 credit = 1 visitor and also random bonus credits awarded during surfing.
Hi Tim:
Stats can be interesting to say the least. making sure you have a good tracking system is pretty important but what do you use and what does a recorded hit, click or whatever mean?
I look at the Alexa Ranking for a site and figure that’s your best indicator of activity on the site. But then there is no way of targeting specific types of visitors so that may not be particularly valuable either.
I would suggest going with the best Alexa ranked sites and then determining by experience which ones are the best for you. StartXchange at about 13K is pretty darn good.
The problem with relying on Alexa ratings is that they only count the visits of the Alexa toolbar users. That isn’t very accurate.
As far as statistics go…….
I minored in statistics in college. The one thing you can be certain of is that they can be made to say whatever you want them to say.
I have two sites that I use regulary. Both offer 1 click for 1 view.
On the first one I have a 6 second timer that only goes to my webstore, I use this to get my numbers up with out a lot of time invested yet I realize that 6 seconds is hardly enough to get a sale. I suppose this is my shotgun site, where I’m wanting number of visits over length of time or quality of my target audience.
On the second site I changed my settings, 15-20 seconds on this site is considered one credit. Well… I bumped both pages to a 40 second timer. In theory I have to go to 4 sites to get one hit on each page. This is my stun gun site, where I want to lock the person in long enough for them to get bored and acutually look around the site.
I do have another one where it’s set on a 1:1 ratio with a 20 second timer… but I rarely use it. You see my reasoning is that since I’m covering my number of visits on one, and amount of time per visit on another then I have a pretty good range. I may lock into another and be more specific about my target audience, but I’m not sure yet.